Saturday, May 17, 2014

Top 10 nba draft prospect: Prediction for the next 3-5 years.

 Based on NBA draft 2008-12 top 10 picks(i just exclude the 2013 class since it is too early to make a conclusion.) all of the 1st pick becomes a star for their team.  and for some reason, most of the 2nd pick fail to fill the hype or fall from a good start of their career. after pick#1, i see only 17% chance finding a hidden star player. a big reason why these players are picked in top 10 are because of the hype, those mock drafts set by media which i really think affects the decision of a team in selecting a player.

Of-course i understand, the GM's job is on the line and if he picks a player out of nowhere, i can see the owners reaction "wtf", you are so fired if he's a bust! so i see that it is better to play it safe than trying to seek for the hidden Gem. I only see 1 GM who takes that risk and now he's fired even though those wild picks seems worth it. Picking Tristan Thompson and Dion Waiters seems a surprising but payed off, not a bad pick. what went wrong was when he pick the biggest surprise of all, picking Anthony Bennett at #1 and this time he fails.

Let's take a wild prediction. 1st list who do you think will be on top 10 then label them based on the provided prediction list. select the top 10 not based on your favorite but based on who you think will be. of-course if you select your fave top 10, you'll label them as a star or something great.

Prediction list:
*Jackpot star - star player of the team
*Late star       - decent stats a rookie, after two or more years will have bigger star role
*Starter          - a solid starter on the team.
*Falling star    - solid stats but will decrease as year goes by
*solid role player - part of the rotation from the bench
*Edge of Bench  - plays minimal role or out of rotation.
*Bounced off - out of the league

1. Embiid  = Late star
2. wiggins = Jackpot star
3. parker = Jackpot star
4. randle = Starter
5. exum = Starter
6. smart = Solid role player
7. vonleh = Edge of Bench
8. harris = Solid role player
9. anderson =Edge of Bench
10.saric = Solid role player

Here are my reason. This is just a wild opinion.

1. Embiid - it is no secret that Embiid has potential, the only question is when will he reach that potential. Anthony Davis did it in sophomore season. Oden did not reach it because of injuries. Embiid is really a big question mark.

2. Wiggins - is still as good as #1. it just the media over-hyped him thus he falls hard when fails what people expect to see from him.
I still have faith on Wiggins, just like Andre Drummond came out from High school as the #1 prospect but fails to showcase his ability in college. but came out as on of the best in 2012 class.

3. Parker - is a sure thing. not the most athletic but will surely produce. I see him more of a rich man's Kawhi Leonard with a go to player instinct.

4. Randle, slips down on mock drafts but i believe he'll be pick top 5. He'll become a very solid starter, not a superstar but worth a consistent provider. I see a Tristan Thompson situation or role on him.

5. Exum - Everyone seems intrigue on this young international prospect. "Oh, Penny Hardaway, i never seen this guy play in college but he looks good on Youtube." I just have a feeling that Exum will end up like Austin Rivers did.

6. Smart - great strength for a guard. that's it, i see him as a stronger westbrook type of player, will try to do too much which cause a turnover and a very inefficient player.
guards who are not so great shooter which succeed in NBA are those who passes very well and that's not the case for smart.

7. Vonleh - teams will gamble on Vonleh based on potential, but i just see him in Biyombo's situation. He don't posses the Go to guy instinct and will not bring a big impact to the game. instead, he'll end up in a minimal role until he'll be out of the rotation.  

8. Gary Harris - he will struggle to live up the hype but will eventually find a solid role on a team. A.K.A. Thomas Robinson situation.

9. Anderson -  is really a good player for UCLA but he's so unique that he may find it hard to fit on the NBA. He's not athletic player to play the wing definitely not a place for him. he don't shoot the ball that good too. drafting him too high is a mistake and i see him at the end of the bench.

10. Saric - I see a poor man's young Kirilenko. he don't heavily fill the stats but surely provide an impact to the team as a solid role player.

I want to see your list on comment section.

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